The sad story of Newfoundland's cod industry is well known: When the region's once-thriving cod population collapsed in 1992, 40,000 jobs vanished along with a way of life. Atlantic cod, previously abundant, became an endangered species.
Char species, so critical to first nations communities, now face similar threats. Globally, fisheries are at risk because of overfishing exacerbated by climate change. Human apathy may be the biggest threat to declining fish species, though, as too many governments and individuals remain in denial about the urgency of the problem.
The warning signs of a growing cri-sis are clear: the Atlantic bluefin tuna spawning population, estimated at just 40 per cent of its peak in 1974, is now a "species of concern," along with its cousin, the Pacific bluefin. In British Columbia, ling cod have nearly disappeared.
Such alarming losses result from ecological as well as economic pressures, and the stakes are high as more and more people need food. The planet's population, projected to exceed nine billion by 2050, clicked past seven billion in 2011.
Every year, some 800 million people are undernourished. Fish provide up to 15 per cent of the dietary animal protein consumed by three billion people worldwide. In low-income, food-deprived countries, this food staple is an especially critical source of protein.
Fisheries also buoy the global economy, generating between $220 billion to $235 billion US in impact annually. As stocks are fished beyond their natural replacement rate, unfortunately, fishing becomes an evermore costly activity, resulting in diminishing returns. By 2004, potential "catch losses" caused by overfishing were estimated at nearly 10 million metric tons. Our research has shown that eliminating overfishing could help avert undernourishment for nearly 20 million people in countries with high proportions of malnourished people, such as Liberia, Sri Lanka, Grenada and Guatemala.
But overfishing is only part of the problem. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase, temperatures are expected to rise between 1.1 C and 6.4 C by 2100, compared with 1990 levels. Changing water temperatures have already prompted many fish species to relocate. The warming climate causes ocean acidification, too, which will have major impacts on Arctic fishing as ice melts, changing the chemistry of marine habitats.
Even "mild" climate change is likely to result in devastating catch losses. In Mexico, for example, University of B.C. research suggests that fishers will catch 20-per-cent fewer South American pilchard. The region would also harvest fewer shrimp, squid, mackerel, red snapper, scallops, mullet, and other species. A more severe climate-change scenario would mean even greater losses for Mexico's fishing industry.
Sadly, too many countries are under-estimating the magnitude of this looming worldwide crisis. Why? Although the big picture for fish is clear, continuing scientific debate concerning technical details may tend to cause political inertia. Further, as I discussed with colleagues at the recent United Nations Climate Change Conference in Durban, South Africa, warmer temperatures are forcing fish to migrate northward, out of equatorial regions. Prosperous nations in the Northern Hemisphere - including the United States, Canada and Japan - may thus benefit, in the short term, from catch losses in warmer regions.
Yet, food insecurity elsewhere clearly affects human migration as well as global trade.
Declining fish populations will, without a doubt, affect all of us soon enough. In Canada, first nations com-munities are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and overfishing.
Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and solving the overfishing problem will be essential steps toward protecting global fisheries. In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will soon set annual catch limits for every federal managed fish species. The U.S. Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act is an excellent starting point that could help guide other countries in promoting fisheries recovery.
But we must do more. What are your thoughts on this topic? Join me Feb. 16-20, when the world's largest general scientific conference, the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), convenes in Vancouver for the first time. Protecting fisheries, jobs and food security will require all of us to work together toward common goals.
Rashid Sumaila is a professor and director of the Fisheries Centre at the University of B.C. His appearances at the AAAS annual meeting will include a free Family Science Days talk at noon Sunday, Feb. 19 in the Vancouver Convention Centre.
© Copyright (c) The Vancouver Sun
Read more:
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/De ... z1l9WVBmaS
